Deja Vu? Mariners’ Ace is Looking Familiar
By: Jackson Westfall
What stat is most important when evaluating starting pitchers? Is it ERA? Strikeouts? Innings pitched? Wins perhaps? The answer has evolved over the years. Just 15 years ago, wins were most important, being the hallmark of starters who put their teams in position to win. But with the emergence of analytics, the criteria of what makes pitchers elite has evolved with modern pitching philosophy.
This shift in pitching evaluation likely occurred with Felix Hernandez’s Cy Young season in 2010, where he led the league in ERA (2.27) and innings pitched with 249.2, striking out 232 batters. Despite those amazing stats, his record was a lackluster 13-12 due to the Mariners inability to provide him with run support. Unfortunately this trend would plague Hernandez for the majority of his career, with a whopping 149 starts of his career 419 receiving two or less runs of support. In those games he was 27-87 with an impressive 3.13 ERA. He also posted a quality start (6+ innings with 3ER or less) in 258 of his 418 career starts, good for 61.7%. Felix Hernandez’s career is an excellent example on how to quantify pitching dominance in today’s baseball landscape.
Why is all of this important? Well, I want to talk about another Seattle pitcher, a pitcher that most baseball fans may not have heard of, Logan Gilbert. Gilbert’s 2024 season has looked a lot like the trajectory of Felix Hernandez’s career. Logan Gilbert has 22 quality starts this year tied for most in the majors with Phillies ace Zack Wheeler. He has posted a sparkling 3.13 ERA and an elite 0.88 WHIP over 185.2 innings of work. He has racked up the strikeouts, as well, recording 191 of them in the aforementioned 185.2 innings- good enough to average more than one per inning. However, he has only won seven of his 29 starts this year due to the lack of run support. The Mariners have provided him with an average of 2.86 runs per start, the lowest in the MLB, including eight starts with no run support, nine starts with just one run of support, and three with two runs of support. That adds up to 19 of his 29 outings this year receiving two or less runs from the dismal Seattle offense.
Overall, Gilbert has really taken a step forward this year and his WHIP is a huge indicator of his on-field success. He gives any team a chance to win every time he toes the rubber. Hopefully Seattle can take steps forward on offense to finally be able to allow Gilbert to shine and be recognized as one of the best starters in game.